During the pandemic, many scientific debates have become highly politicised. These include debates around fatality rates, the mortality imp...
During the pandemic, many scientific debates have become highly politicised. These include debates around fatality rates, the mortality impact of the pandemic, herd immunity, vaccination, and various drugs and treatments. It has been common for unlikely or absurd claims to be couched in the language of science and data.
So, it is not surprising that discussions of how the pandemic will end have political undertones too. In particular there has been much talk of the transition “from epidemic to endemic”. What exactly does this mean? Is this transition inevitable? Is it good news? And will it change how we look back at the Covid-19 epidemic?
Here’s my take on the key issues and debates.
What does ‘endemicity’ mean – and is it good news?
Roughly speaking, a disease is endemic in some region if it occurs at a fairly steady level without dying away and without major flare-ups. There may be some fluctuations and seasonal variations but not large surges, namely epidemics. For example, there are four endemic human coronaviruses which tend to circulate more widely in winter, and cause symptoms of the common cold. Could SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19, eventually join them?
There are several common misconceptions which become apparent in discussions of Covid-19 and endemicity.
- It is sometimes assumed, wrongly, that...
