On 16 September, India reported 97,894 new cases – 11,36,613 tests were done that day, which meant the positivity rate was still a relative...
On 16 September, India reported 97,894 new cases – 11,36,613 tests were done that day, which meant the positivity rate was still a relatively high 8.6 per cent. On 17 September, the country had 10,17,754 active COVID-19 cases – the highest ever. The numbers seemed to be on an exponential growth curve – and then suddenly, without any explanation, the daily COVID-19 tally pulled back from the brink of a lakh, much to the disbelief of many people.
India had crossed one COVID-19 peak – a peak in an infectious disease is the point from which the numbers start coming down. India’s numbers started coming down from around mid-September. By the end of the year, statistical projections were bandied around to claim that India would be one of those rare countries that would escape with just one COVID-19 peak.
It was only when an expert committee formed by the Government of India’s department of science and technology, consisting of mathematicians, statisticians and computer science experts, came out with their final report more than a month later that there was an official confirmation that September had, indeed, been a COVID- 19 peak in India.
“Based on the mathematical model developed by the Committee, the following conclusions...
