The missing national seroprevalence survey has now been found – or so it seems. On July 9, I had discussed the surprising claims that fol...
The missing national seroprevalence survey has now been found – or so it seems. On July 9, I had discussed the surprising claims that followed completion of the May-June survey to assess the spread of Covid-19 in India. Led by the Indian Council of Medical Research, the survey generated plenty of headlines and speculation, but no preprint or further detail. Now, three months later, a paper in the Indian Journal of Medical Research is available, with 74 authors no less.
With the second national survey now completed, it is unlikely that results of the first will inform many policy decisions. But do we, at least, have a missing piece in India’s Covid-19 story? Do we finally know what was going on with the disease upto May? The short answer is, unfortunately, no. In fact, if the survey holds clear lessons, these are about the conduct of Covid-related research, and not about how India became the world leader in daily Covid-19 cases and deaths. My advice to commentators would be: Do not build any firm narratives around the survey results. There are too many errors, omissions and uncertainties, and any stories built on these foundations could collapse like a house of cards.
Basic problems
Firstly, the scientific integrity of the whole process is in...
