Mumbai’s Covid-19 epidemic could be the largest Covid-19 city epidemic in the world to date. By August 14, an estimated 5 million to 6 mill...
Mumbai’s Covid-19 epidemic could be the largest Covid-19 city epidemic in the world to date. By August 14, an estimated 5 million to 6 million people in the city had been infected and there had been 7,035 recorded Covid-19 deaths – 15% of India’s total. Taking into account possible undercounting of deaths, the real toll could be considerably greater. How did the city reach this point?
Attempting to trace Mumbai’s Covid-19 story teaches us a number of lessons. It shows us that the coronavirus is not a great leveller and spreads much more rapidly in poor housing. There are probably no magic bullets when it comes to controlling Covid-19 in slums. And it teaches us to be cautious about the stories we spin around data: for example, case numbers in different areas may not accurately reflect the geographical spread of the disease, and naively calculated fatality rates could be very wrong.
The early days of the epidemic
Mumbai recorded its first Covid-19 case on March 11 and its first death on March 17. By March 31, it had reported 164 cases and nine deaths. Cases grew exponentially during the first weeks of the national lockdown that was imposed from March 25, quadrupling every week or so,...
