In a briefing on June 11, the Indian Council of Medical Research presented estimates of levels of Covid-19 infection in India and its infe...
In a briefing on June 11, the Indian Council of Medical Research presented estimates of levels of Covid-19 infection in India and its infection fatality rate – the proportion of those infected who are expected to die. These estimates were based on incomplete results from a seroprevalence survey conducted during May to measure the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, indicating likely past infection.
Some estimates were surprising, but there was no indication of their likely accuracy. They were, for the most part, reported uncritically in the press.
ICMR’s claims
High prevalence in April: The headline claim was that 0.73% of the population in 65 districts had already been exposed to Covid-19 by the end of April. These districts were presumed by most commentators to be representative of the country as a whole. If so, around 10 million people nationwide would have been infected by the end of April. This would mean that testing had detected just 1 in every 280 infections.
Low fatality rate: The ICMR also claimed that the infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in India is just 0.08%. Put simply, fewer than 1 in 1,000 of those infected would die. This would make Covid-19 in India far less deadly than around the world where the majority of infection fatality rate estimates have been...Read more
