The Aam Aadmi Party has scored a massive victory in Delhi with results that do not offer much nuance or variation, as most of the data poin...
The Aam Aadmi Party has scored a massive victory in Delhi with results that do not offer much nuance or variation, as most of the data points in the same direction. It is useful, however, to try to look behind the big numbers to see what the data can tell about the election and about the transformation of AAP from an anti-system movement into a conventional political party.
In this piece, based on data collected from a variety of sources, including fieldwork conducted during the campaign, we look at trends in participation, candidates and party performance, at the geography of the results and at the profile of the previous and new assembly.
Participation down
After a brief period of cacophony from the Election Commission, the participation rate in the Delhi election has been measured at 62.6%, five points below the 2015 turnout but an identical turnout to the last general election.
Delhi has always registered a relatively high turnout among India’s large cities, barring 1998 when it went below the 50% mark. The 2015 elections was unusual, as AAP erupted and swept the election on the back of a wave of popular support. Thus, the turnout in the 2020 election is back to a regular...
